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Forest Fires Model and SIR Model Used in Spread of Ebola Virus in Prediction and Prevention

Authors(2) :-Ning ZHANG, Jing TANG

Ebola has been repeatedly ravaged Earth. Since the end of 2013, Ebola swept West Africa, has caused tens of thousands of people infected or death. Based on this, it is an effective way to establish an effective, workable, practical significance of the mathematical model for health care workers and researchers to help in the fight against the Ebola epidemic. We base on assumptions of population stability in West Africa, the epidemic is no longer continue to expand, the drug can effectively reaches the hands of the patient once it put in; By SIR model, the most classic model in infectious disease, and published data, we realize the epidemic prediction. And base on them, by using forest fires model of cellular automata and two-compartment model of pharmacokinetic, we analyze and forecast three aspects for Vaccine/drug Efficacy, Epidemic Area, Vaccine/drug Production and R&D Speed. We propose drug distribution points in West Africa should be in accordance with changes by the strength of the Epidemic area, and drug development should begin at the growth of the epidemic stage 1/3, and 1/2 of the growth of the epidemic stage clinical trials in order to achieve the best results. Although limited ability, we analyze factors with a single control and then propose solution. But we built the best model out.
Ebola Virus Disease, Eradicating Ebola Epidemic, SIR Model, Forest-Fire Model, Two-Compartment Model, Epidemic Prevention
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Publication Details
  Published in : Volume 2 | Issue 4 | July-August 2016
  Date of Publication : 2016-08-30
License:  This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Page(s) : 222-231
Manuscript Number : IJSRST162454
Publisher : Technoscience Academy
PRINT ISSN : 2395-6011
ONLINE ISSN : 2395-602X
Cite This Article :
Ning ZHANG, Jing TANG, "Forest Fires Model and SIR Model Used in Spread of Ebola Virus in Prediction and Prevention", International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology(IJSRST), Print ISSN : 2395-6011, Online ISSN : 2395-602X, Volume 2, Issue 4, pp.222-231, July-August-2016
URL : http://ijsrst.com/IJSRST162454