Forest Fires Model and SIR Model Used in Spread of Ebola Virus in Prediction and Prevention

Authors

  • Ning ZHANG  College of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong, China
  • Jing TANG  College of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong, China

Keywords:

Ebola Virus Disease, Eradicating Ebola Epidemic, SIR Model, Forest-Fire Model, Two-Compartment Model, Epidemic Prevention

Abstract

Ebola has been repeatedly ravaged Earth. Since the end of 2013, Ebola swept West Africa, has caused tens of thousands of people infected or death. Based on this, it is an effective way to establish an effective, workable, practical significance of the mathematical model for health care workers and researchers to help in the fight against the Ebola epidemic. We base on assumptions of population stability in West Africa, the epidemic is no longer continue to expand, the drug can effectively reaches the hands of the patient once it put in; By SIR model, the most classic model in infectious disease, and published data, we realize the epidemic prediction. And base on them, by using forest fires model of cellular automata and two-compartment model of pharmacokinetic, we analyze and forecast three aspects for Vaccine/drug Efficacy, Epidemic Area, Vaccine/drug Production and R&D Speed. We propose drug distribution points in West Africa should be in accordance with changes by the strength of the Epidemic area, and drug development should begin at the growth of the epidemic stage 1/3, and 1/2 of the growth of the epidemic stage clinical trials in order to achieve the best results. Although limited ability, we analyze factors with a single control and then propose solution. But we built the best model out.

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International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology

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Published

2016-08-30

Issue

Volume 2, Issue 4, July-August-2016

Section

Research Articles

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Copyright (c) IJSRST

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

[1]
Ning ZHANG, Jing TANG, " Forest Fires Model and SIR Model Used in Spread of Ebola Virus in Prediction and Prevention, International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology(IJSRST), Online ISSN : 2395-602X, Print ISSN : 2395-6011, Volume 2, Issue 4, pp.222-231, July-August-2016.