Food Commodities Prices and Its Implication on Food Security In Nigeria: (1970-2012)

Authors(2) :-Dr Samuel O. Binuomote, Tolulope Olawuyi

This study examined the movements in prices of the selected food crops over the period of 1970-2012 in Nigeria. Data from secondary sources such as Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and the Food and Agricultural Organization of United Nations Statistical online database were used in the study. The data used include; Nigeria’s estimated per capita food production figures, per capita income, exchange rate, and the real retail prices of the three food crops studied which are Rice, Maize, and Wheat. Unit root test, autoregressive distributed lags modeling approach to cointegration were employed for the empirical data analysis. The unit root test shows that all the variables have unit root except for maize price, wheat price and per capital income which are all stationary at levels. Examination of the cointegration properties of the variables for both rice and wheat real prices show that all the variables specified in each of the models are cointegrated. Error correction modeling of rice and wheat real prices show that real exchange rate, inflation, per capita output, per capita income and inflation are the main determinants of real prices of rice and wheat in Nigeria. While the error correction mechanism (ECM) was found to have values of 0.819 and 0.652 which were both significant at 1%, rice, wheat and maize were found to be close substitute food crops in Nigeria.

Authors and Affiliations

Dr Samuel O. Binuomote
Department of Agricultural Economics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, P. M. B. 4000, Ogbomoso. Nigeria
Tolulope Olawuyi
Department of Agricultural Economics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, P. M. B. 4000, Ogbomoso. Nigeria

Rice, Wheat, ARDL, Cointegration, Price

  1. Akpan, S. B. (2002). Analysis of Gross Margin Efficiency of rice beans and garri in Selected markets in Cross River State. Unpublished undergraduate project work. University of Calabar, Nigeria.
  2. Akpan, S. B.(2007). Relative Price Variability and Inflation: A case study of Grain subsector in Nigeria. Unpublished Master Degree Thesis. University of Uyo, Nigeria
  3. Binuomote S. O. et al.(2012). Effect Of Government Expenditure On Agricultural Productivity In Nigeria (1960- 2008). A Bounds Testing Approach. Continental J. Agricultural Science 6 (2): 30 - 37, 2012
  4. Cashin, Paul, and Catherine Pattillo, 2000,“Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa: Are They Short-Lived or Long-Lived?,”IMF Working Paper 00/72 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
  5. FAO (2000). The State of Food and Agriculture, Food And Agriculture Organization Of The United Nations Rome.
  6. Gilbert, C. (1999). Commodity risk management for developing countries: paper prepared for the third meeting of the international task force (ITF) held in Geneva 23-24 June 1999
  7. Gilbert, C. L. & Morgan, C. W. (2010). Food price volatility, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 365: 3023–3034
  8. Headey, D., and S. Fan (2008). ‘‘Anatomy of a Crisis: The Causes and Consequences of Surging Food Prices.’’ Agricultural Economics 39(2008):375– 91.
  9. Hendry, D. F. and N. R. Ericsson (1991) “Modeling the Demand for Narrow Money in the United Binuomote, S. O. and Ajetomobi J. O. 57 Kingdom and the United States.” European Economic Review: 35(4): 833-886.
  10. Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990). "Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-   -with        applications to the demand for money." Oxford Bulletin of    Economics and Statistics, 52,      169-210.
  11. Ladipo, O.O and A.A. Adesimi, (1979). Income Distribution in the Rural Sector of Nigeria. Pp. 237-260. In H. Benin and V.P Diejomaoh (Eds) Inequality and Development in Nigeria. Holmes and Meirer Publishers, Inc., New York.
  12. Ladipo, O.O and O. Oludimu (1985), A Statistical Analysis of Food Prices. Ife Journal of Agriculture. ObafemiAwolowo University. Vol. 17. No. 1& 2, Pp. 66-79.
  13. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level    ” Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 289–326.
  14. Polaski, S (2008), ‘Rising Food Prices, Poverty, and the Doha Round’, CARNEGIE, downloaded from on 1.06.2012
  15. Talukder, A., Kiess, L., Huq, N., de Pee, S., Darnton-Hill, I. and Bloem, M.W. (2000), Increasing the production and consumption of vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables: Lessons learned in taking the Bangladesh    homestead gardening programme to a national scale,” Food and Nutr Bull. 21 (2): 165-172.
  16. Tisdell, C.A (1976). Influences of Variable Product Prices on Income of Multi product Firms and Agricultural Economics. Journal of Agricultural Economics. Vol. 37, No. 2, Pp 227-234.
  17. Tomek , W.G. and K.L Robinson (1972) Agricultural Price Analysis, Cornell University Press Limited, 2-4, Brook street, London, WIY IAA.
  18. Trostle, R. (2008). ‘‘Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices.’’ ERS Report WRS-0801. Economic Research Service, US Department of          Agriculture, 2008.Internet site: trading/agricultural/ files/WRS0801.pdf
  19. Tschirley D.L. (1995). Using Micro Computer spreadsheets for spatial and temporal price analysis: An Application to Rice and Maize in Ecuador. In: Gregory J.S. (ed.). Prices, Products and People; Analyzing Agricultural Markets in Developing Countries. Lynne Rienner publishers, Inc. Boulder, Colorado. pp. 277-299.

Publication Details

Published in : Volume 2 | Issue 4 | July-August 2016
Date of Publication : 2016-08-31
License:  This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Page(s) : 293-304
Manuscript Number : IJSRST162554
Publisher : Technoscience Academy

Print ISSN : 2395-6011, Online ISSN : 2395-602X

Cite This Article :

Dr Samuel O. Binuomote, Tolulope Olawuyi, " Food Commodities Prices and Its Implication on Food Security In Nigeria: (1970-2012)", International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology(IJSRST), Print ISSN : 2395-6011, Online ISSN : 2395-602X, Volume 2, Issue 4, pp.293-304, July-August-2016.
Journal URL :

Article Preview