Long Term Fluctuations and Global Teleconnections in the Monsoonal Rainfall and Associated Floods of the Mahi Basin : Western India

Authors(2) :-Uttam V. Pawar , Pramodkumar S. Hire

This paper examines the long term fluctuations and global teleconnections in the monsoonal rainfall and associated floods of the Mahi Basin from western India. In order to analyze rainfall and associated floods, the rainfall data for monsoon season of the Mahi Basin have been obtained for last 149 years (1857-2005) from India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. The discharge data of the Wanakbori site, procured from Kadana Dam flood control cell, have been used to show its association with the monsoonal rainfall. Time series analysis, percent departure from mean, Normalized Accumulated Departure from Mean (NADM), Mann-Kendall test and conditional probability technique for El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been used for the analyses of monsoonal rainfall data of the Mahi Basin and its effect on floods. The results indicate year to year variations in the monsoon rainfall with significant departure from mean rainfall of the Mahi Basin. It is observed that majority of the floods are associated with positive departure from mean rainfall. The NADM shows epochal behavior of high and low monsoon rainfall of the basin and the Mann-Kendall test reveals statistically significant decreasing trend in the monsoon rainfall of the basin. The analysis of ENSO reveals that the probability of the occurrence of the floods in the Mahi basin is high during cold (La Nina) event than warm (El Nino) event.

Authors and Affiliations

Uttam V. Pawar
Department of Geography, HPT Arts and RYK Science College, Nashik, Maharashtra, India
Pramodkumar S. Hire
Department of Geography, HPT Arts and RYK Science College, Nashik, Maharashtra, India

Mahi Basin, monsoonal rainfall, global teleconnection, rainfall trend, floods

  1. V.S. Kale, Long-period fluctuations in Monsoon floods in the Deccan Peninsula, India. Journal of Geological Society of India, v. 53, 1999, pp. 5-15.
  2. D.A .Mooley, B. Parthasarthy, Fluctuations of all-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Climatic Change, v. 6, 1984, pp. 287-301.
  3. B. Parthasarathy, K. Rupa Kumar, A.A. Munot, Evidence of secular variations in Indian monsoon rainfall-circulation relationship. Journal of Climatology, v. 4, 1991, pp.927-938. 
  4. R.H. Kripalani, A. Kulkarni, Climatic impact of El Niño/La Niña on the Indian monsoon: A new perspective. Weather, v. 52, 1997, pp. 39-46.
  5. E.M. Rasmussen, T.H. Carpenter, The relationships between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka.Monsoon Weather Review, v. 111, 1983, 517-528.
  6. J. Shukla, D.A. Paolino, The Southern Oscillation and the Long-range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall over India. Monthly Weather Review, v. 111, 1983, 1830-1853.
  7. M. Q. Mirza, R. A. Warrick, N. J. Ericksen, and G. J. Kenny, Trends and persistence in precipitation in Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins. Hydrology Science Journal, v.43, 1998, pp. 845-858.
  8. P.G. Rao, Climatic changes and trends over a major river basin in India. Climate Res., v.2, 1993, pp. 215-223.
  9. N. Singh, N.A. Sontakke, H. N. Singh, and A. K. Pandey, Recent trend in spatio-temporal variation of rainfall over Indian Investigation into basin-scale rainfall fluctuations. IAHS Publication No. 296, 2005, pp. 273-282.
  10. P.B. Wright, Homogenized long-period Southern Oscillation indices. International Journal of Climatology, v. 9, 1989, 33-54.
  11. C.F. Ropelewski, and M.S. Halpert, Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review, v. Ill, pp. 1987. 517-528.
  12. R.P. Kane, Relationship between southern oscillation/El Nino and rainfall in some tropical and midlatitude regions. Proceedings of Indian Academy of science, v. 98, 1989, pp. 223-235.
  13. E.A.B. Eltahir, El Nino and the natural variability in the flow of the Nile River Water Resources Research, v. 32, 1996, pp. 131-137.
  14. A.D. Patil, Bedrock channel of the Par River; its forms and processes. Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, Tilak Maharashtra Vidyapeeth, Pune, 2018.

Publication Details

Published in : Volume 5 | Issue 1 | January-February 2018
Date of Publication : 2018-01-20
License:  This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Page(s) : 240-242
Manuscript Number : IJSRST185147
Publisher : Technoscience Academy

Print ISSN : 2395-6011, Online ISSN : 2395-602X

Cite This Article :

Uttam V. Pawar , Pramodkumar S. Hire, " Long Term Fluctuations and Global Teleconnections in the Monsoonal Rainfall and Associated Floods of the Mahi Basin : Western India", International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology(IJSRST), Print ISSN : 2395-6011, Online ISSN : 2395-602X, Volume 5, Issue 1, pp.240-242, January-February-2018.
Journal URL : http://ijsrst.com/IJSRST185147

Article Preview