An Empirical Study on Predicting the Wind Speed after Landfall of Tropical Cyclones Over Bay of Bengal

Authors

  • Rahman M. A.  Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh
  • Yeasmin M.  Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh
  • Islam M. A.  Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh
  • Farukh M. A.  Department of Environmental Science, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Keywords:

Empirical Study, Prediction, TC, Wind Speed, BoB

Abstract

The post landfall wind speed forecast of tropical cyclones (TC) over Bay of Bengal (BoB) are explained by using an empirical study. The study parameters are obtained from the database of 19 tropical cyclone of 1988-2017. The study is based upon the assumption of tropical cyclone wind speed decay after landfall. A method for correcting the forecast during subsequent observation hours is also presented. The method for predicting the cyclone wind speed is tribute from the most recent study over the Indian and USA coast. Results show that without the correction factor the absolute mean error (MAE) ranges from 10.1 To 5.7 Kt, root mean square error (Rmse) ranges from 12.5 to 7.7 Kt and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) ranges from 30.0 to 10.1 Kt with these parameters decreasing over time for wind speed. A significant improvement in the forecast skill is observed with including the correction procedure. For the operational forecaster, this model will be helpful and important.

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International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology

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Published

2019-01-04

Issue

Volume 5, Issue 4, January-2019

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Research Articles

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How to Cite

[1]
Rahman M. A., Yeasmin M., Islam M. A., Farukh M. A., " An Empirical Study on Predicting the Wind Speed after Landfall of Tropical Cyclones Over Bay of Bengal, International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology(IJSRST), Online ISSN : 2395-602X, Print ISSN : 2395-6011, Volume 5, Issue 4, pp.75-84, January-2019.