Evaluation of Instability Aspects of Cotton Productivity in India

Abstract

Policy decisions are often made based on the growth rates which depend on the nature and structure of the data and instability in farm production. The present paper analyzes the growth and instability in cotton area, production and productivity during the period 1951-52 to 2010-11. Growth and instability of cotton during pre-introduction (1993-94 to 2001-02) and post- introduction of Bt cotton periods (2002-03 to 2010-11) was also analyzed. For this purpose compound growth rates were estimated by studying the exponential function and coefficient of variation was worked out to find out instability associated. It was found that growth of cotton area and production was significant during 1950s, 1990s and 2001-10. Growth of cotton production was highest during the period 2001-10. Growth rate of productivity was also high during 2001-10. Instability analysis indicated that cotton area was more stable than production and productivity. Thus, policies should be made to reduce the risk in cotton production and to make it profitable so as to sustain the high growth rate experienced during the past few years.