COVID-19 : Detailed Analytics & Predictive Modelling using Deep Learning

Authors

  • Arjun Dutta  R&D-Growth, Brickview Studios, West Bengal, India
  • Aman Gupta  Business Head, Brickview Studios, West Bengal, India
  • Farhan Hai Khan  Student, WBUT, West Bengal, India

DOI:

https://doi.org//10.32628/IJSRST207517

Keywords:

COVID-19 Predictions, Deep Learning, Exponential Growth, Infection Frequency Analysis, Coronavirus Trends

Abstract

The rise of COVID-19 pandemic is alarmingly exponential in nature, and there is no certain predictability in the patterns of its future growth. This research aims at providing suitable insights into the current spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID 19) and conveys detailed analysis into current statistical growth rates of the infection frequency for diverse cases. We also provide schematic visualizations contrast and compare trends between various countries and India. We inspect closely and differentiate between the curves for the mortality rates globally. Also projected categorically most affected states of India.Finally, this research proposes methodologies for design and implementation of deep learning models for the predictive modelling of the various cases around the world and delivers predictions till March 2021 for confirmed and death cases.

References

  1. Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) Situation Report-94,www. who.int/docsdefaultsource/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200423-sitrep-94-covid-19.pdf,Accessed 10/09/2020.
  2. Amar L.A., Taha A.A. & Mohamed M.Y., Prediction of the final size for COVID-19 epidemic using machine learning: A case study of Egypt, Infectious Disease Modelling (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.008.
  3. F. Shahid, A. Zameer and M. Muneeb, Predictions for COVID-19 with deep learning models of LSTM, GRU and Bi-LSTM, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 140 (2020) 110212
  4. S. Tuli, S. Tuli and R. Tuli et al. / Internet of Things 11 (2020) 100222 Predicting the growth and trend of COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning and cloud computing
  5. A. Tomar, N. Gupta, Prediction for the spread of COVID-19 in India and effectiveness of preventive measures, Science of the Total Environment 728 (2020) 138762
  6. K. Sarkar, S. Khajanchi and J.J. Nieto, Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in India, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 139 (2020) 110049
  7. Dataset Used for Research : Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University , COVID-19DataRepository,github.com /CSSEGISandData/ COVID-19 ,Accessed 07/20/20.
  8. Prediction of Spreads of COVID-19 in India from Current Trend, Himanshu Shekhar , doi.org/10. 1101/2020.05.01.20087460
  9. Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19, Fotios Petropoulos ,Spyros Makridakis , doi.org/10.1371 /journal.pone.0231236
  10. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Visualization & Prediction ,XingyuBian, kaggle.com /therealcyber lord/ coronavirus-covid-19-visualization-prediction
  11. COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning, SinaF. Ardabili,Amir MOSAVI,Pedram Ghamisi,doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20070094
  12. Empirical Evaluation of Rectified Activations in Convolutional Network, Bing Xu, Naiyan Wang, Tianqi Chen, Mu Li, https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.00853
  13. Densely Connected Convolutional Networks, Gao Huang, Zhuang Liu, Laurens van der Maaten, Kilian Q. Weinberger, https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.06993
  14. India JSON Dataset: COVID-19 REST API for India ,api.rootnet.in/covid19-in/stats/testing/history , Accessed 07/20/20.

Downloads

Published

2020-10-30

Issue

Section

Research Articles

How to Cite

[1]
Arjun Dutta, Aman Gupta, Farhan Hai Khan, " COVID-19 : Detailed Analytics & Predictive Modelling using Deep Learning, International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology(IJSRST), Online ISSN : 2395-602X, Print ISSN : 2395-6011, Volume 7, Issue 5, pp.95-104, September-October-2020. Available at doi : https://doi.org/10.32628/IJSRST207517