Review on Analysis of Power Supply and Demand in Maharashtra State for Load Forecasting Using ANN

Authors

  • Suraj G. Patil  ME Scholar, Electrical Engineering Department, Prof. Ram Meghe College of Engineering and Management, Badnera, Amravati, India.
  • Dr. M. S. Ali  Professor, Electrical Engineering Department, Prof. Ram Meghe College of Engineering and Management, Badnera, Amravati, India.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32628/IJSRST229152

Keywords:

Short term load forecasting, Back Propagation, Artificial Neural Network.

Abstract

The Electric load forecasting (ELF) is a critical procedure in the electrical industry's planning and plays a critical role in electric capacity scheduling and power system management, hence it has piqued academic attention. As a result, for energy generating capacity scheduling and power system management, the accuracy of electric load forecasting is critical. This document provides an overview of power load forecasting methodologies and models. A total of 40 scholarly publications were included in the comparison, which was based on certain criteria such as time frame, inputs, outcomes, project scale, and value. Despite the relative simplicity of all studied models, the regression analysis is still extensively employed and effective for long-term forecasting, according to the research. Machine learning or artificial intelligence-based models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Fuzzy logic are preferred for short-term forecasts.

References

  1. Rothe, J. P., A. K. Wadhwani, and S.Wadhwani. “Hybrid and integrated approach to short term load forecasting”. International Journal of Engineering Science and Technology, vol.2, no. 12, pp.7127-7132, 2010.
  2. J. H. Chow, “Applied Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems: Optimization, Control, and Computational Intelligence”. New York: Springer-Verlag, 2005, ch. 12.
  3. Ruzic, S., Vuckovic, A. and Nikolic, N., “Weather sensitive method for short term load forecasting in electric power utility of Serbia”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol.18, no. 4, pp.1581-1586, 2003.
  4. Hyde, O. and Hodnett, P.F., “An adaptable automated procedure for short-term electricity load forecasting”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 12, no. 1, pp.84-94, 1997.
  5. Haida, T. and Muto, S., “Regression based peak load forecasting using a transformation technique”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 9, no. 4, pp.1788-1794, 1994.
  6. Charytoniuk, W., Chen, M.S. and Van Olinda, P., “Nonparametric regression based short-term load forecasting”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 13, no.3, pp.725-730, 1998.
  7. Fan, J.Y. and McDonald, J.D., “A real-time implementation of short-term load forecasting for distribution power systems”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 9, no. 2, pp.988-994, 1994.
  8. Ghasemi, A., Shayeghi, H., Moradzadeh, M. and Nooshyar, M., “A novel hybrid algorithm for electricity price and load forecasting in smart grids with demand-side management”. Applied energy, vol. 177, pp.40-59, 2016.
  9. Fogel, D.B., “An introduction to simulated evolutionary optimization”. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, vol. 5, no. 1, pp.3-14, 1994.
  10. Shayeghi, H., Ghasemi, A., Moradzadeh, M. and Nooshyar, M., “Simultaneous day-ahead forecasting of electricity price and load in smart grids”. Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 95, pp.371-384, 2015.
  11. Yang, H.T. and Huang, C.M., “A new short-term load forecasting approach using self-organizing fuzzy ARMAX models”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 13, no. 1, pp.217-225, 1998.
  12. Ho, K.L., Hsu, Y.Y., Chen, C.F., Lee, T.E., Liang, C.C., Lai, T.S. and Chen, K.K., “Short term load forecasting of Taiwan power system using a knowledge-based expert system”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 5, no. 4, pp.1214-1221, 1990.
  13. Rahman, S. and Hazim, O., “Load forecasting for multiple sites: development of an expert system-based technique”. Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 39, no. 3, pp.161-169, 1996.
  14. Çevik, H.H. and Çunkas, M., “A fuzzy logic based short term load forecast for the holidays”. International Journal of Machine Learning and Computing, vol. 6, no. 1, pp.57, 2016.
  15. Jain, Amit, E. Srinivas, and RasmimayeeRauta. “Short term load forecasting using fuzzy adaptive inference and similarity”. In Nature & Biologically Inspired Computing, 2009. NaBIC 2009. pp.1743-1748. IEEE, 2009.
  16. Çevik, H.H. and Çunkaş, M., “Short-term load forecasting using fuzzy logic and ANFIS”. Neural Computing and Applications, vol. 26, no. 6, pp.1355-136, 2015.
  17. Ranaweera, D. K., N. F. Hubele, and G. G. Karady. “Fuzzy logic for short term load forecasting”. International Journal of electrical power & energy systems, vol. 18, no. 4, pp.215-222, 1996.
  18. Khotanzad, A., Afkhami-Rohani, R., Lu, T.L., Abaye, A., Davis, M. and Maratukulam, D.J., “ANNSTLF-a neural-network-based electric load forecasting system”. IEEE Transactions on Neural networks, vol. 8, no. 4, pp.835-846 1997.
  19. Tayeb, EisaBashier M., A. Taifour Ali, and Ahmed A. Emam. “Electrical Energy Management and Load Forecasting in a Smart Grid”. 2013.
  20. Khotanzad, A., Afkhami-Rohani, R. and Maratukulam, D., “ANNSTLF-artificial neural network short-term load forecaster-generation three”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 13, no. 4, pp.1413-1422, 1998.
  21. Chow, T.W.S. and Leung, C.T., “Nonlinear autoregressive integrated neural network model for short-term load forecasting”. IEE Proceedings-Generation, Transmission and Distribution, vol. 143, no. 5, pp.500-506, 1996.
  22. Mohammed, O., Park, D., Merchant, R., Dinh, T., Tong, C., Azeem, A., Farah, J. and Drake, C., “Practical experiences with an adaptive neural network short-term load forecasting system”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 10, no. 1, pp.254-265, 1995.
  23. Park, D.C., El-Sharkawi, M.A., Marks, R.J., Atlas, L.E. and Damborg, M.J., “Electric load forecasting using an artificial neural network”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 6, no. 2, pp.442-449, 1991.
  24. Raza, M.Q., Nadarajah, M., Hung, D.Q. and Baharudin, Z., “An intelligent hybrid short-term load forecasting model for smart power grids”. Sustainable Cities and Society, vol. 31, pp.264-275, 2017.
  25. Dillon, T.S., Sestito, S. and Leung, S., “Short term load forecasting using an adaptive neural network”. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, vol. 13, no. 4, pp.186-192, 1991.
  26. Lee, K.Y., Cha, Y.T. and Park, J.H., “Short-term load forecasting using an artificial neural network”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 7, no. 1, pp.124-132, 1992.
  27. Lu, C.N., Wu, H.T. and Vemuri, S., “Neural network based short term load forecasting”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 8, no. 1, pp.336-342, 1993.
  28. Ho, K.L., Hsu, Y.Y. and Yang, C.C., “Short term load forecasting using a multilayer neural network with an adaptive learning algorithm”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 7, no. 1, pp.141-149, 1992.
  29. Daneshdoost, M., Lotfalian, M., Bumroonggit, G. and Ngoy, J.P., “Neural network with fuzzy set-based classification for short-term load forecasting”. IEEE Transactions on power systems, vol. 13, no. 4, pp.1386-1391, 1998.
  30. Hsu, Yuan-Yih, and Chien-Chuen Yang. “Design of artificial neural networks for short-term load forecasting. Part 1: Self-organizing feature maps for day type identification”. In IEE Proceedings C (Generation, Transmission and Distribution), vol. 138, no. 5, pp. 407-413. IET Digital Library, 1991.
  31. Kothari, D. P., &Nagrath, I. J. “Modern power system analysis”. Tata McGraw-Hill Education, 2011.
  32. Hippert, Henrique Steinherz, Carlos Eduardo Pedreira, and Reinaldo Castro Souza. “Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation”. IEEE Transactions on power systems, vol. 16, no. 1, pp.44-55, 2001.
  33. Engle, Robert F., Chowdhury Mustafa, and John Rice. “Modelling peak electricity demand”. Journal of forecasting, vol. 11, no. 3, pp.241-251, 1992.
  34. Peng, T. M., N. F. Hubele, and G. G. Karady. “Advancement in the application of neural networks for short-term load forecasting”. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 7, no. 1, pp.250-257, 1992.
  35. Vapnik VN. “The nature of statistical learning theory”; Jordan M, Lauritzen SL, Lawless JL, Nair V, editors.
  36. Saxena, D., Singh, S. N., & Verma, K. S. “Application of computational intelligence in emerging power systems”. International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 1-7, 2010.
  37. Keyhani, A., “Design of smart power grid renewable energy systems”. John Wiley & Sons, 2016.
  38. Zurada, Jacek M. “Introduction to artificial neural systems”. vol. 8. St. Paul: West, 1992.
  39. Rajasekaran, S., & Vijayslakshmi, P. G. A., Neural networks, fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms, PHI Learning Private Ltd, 2011.
  40. Olagoke, Mahrufat & Ayeni, A & Hambali, Moshood, “Short Term Electric Load Forecasting using Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm”, International Journal of Applied Information Systems (IJAIS), Vol. 10, pp. 22 – 28, doi: 10.5120/ijais2016451490.

Downloads

Published

2022-02-28

Issue

Section

Research Articles

How to Cite

[1]
Suraj G. Patil, Dr. M. S. Ali "Review on Analysis of Power Supply and Demand in Maharashtra State for Load Forecasting Using ANN" International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology(IJSRST), Online ISSN : 2395-602X, Print ISSN : 2395-6011,Volume 9, Issue 1, pp.341-347, January-February-2022. Available at doi : https://doi.org/10.32628/IJSRST229152