Time Series Forecasting of Air Quality Index in Lahore : A Machine Learning Perspective with Facebook Prophet Model

Abstract

This research investigates the rising problem of air pollution, which is a serious issue affecting people's health and the environment on a global scale. Focusing on Lahore, Pakistan, a city facing severe pollution, the research examines the Air Quality Index (AQI) from May 2019 to December 2023. Using the Facebook Prophet model for time-series forecasting, the analysis reveals trends at monthly, weekly, and hourly intervals. Peak AQI concentrations are identified in winter months, notably December and January, aligning with hazardous smog levels. Weekly trends show minimum AQI on weekends, particularly Saturday and Sunday. The hourly trend points to peak AQI concentrations between 7:00 and 09:00 AM, correlating with morning traffic and emphasizing the role of vehicular emissions in air quality degradation. These forecasts are crucial for anticipating and mitigating the adverse impact of air pollution on human health. This research underscores the critical need for comprehensive strategies to address air pollution, acknowledging the Lahore High Court and Government's initiatives, such as artificial rain experimentation, closure of commercial markets by 10 PM, ban on cutting trees and smoke-emitting vehicles. In summary, this research significantly contributes to understanding and tackling the increasingly urgent challenges associated with air quality.